Dragons of Tarkir Constructed Considerations - i

Hello all.

I've been writing about the common and uncommon creatures available in each colour but want to focus on the first part of a constructed review here as a detour from limited. The set has been out for a couple of weeks now. It has had some interesting implications on constructed already, most notably from the Star City Games Events such as their invitational and opens in Richmond and Syracuse. The standard format with Dragons of Tarkir is still in it's infancy though. As usually occurs with a large set entering into standard, the Pro Tour sets the bar and the weeks after help shape the true format. The early weeks barely scratch the surface of what can be explored with player's opting for known / safe / obvious strategies. I don't see any evidence to suggest this set is any different.

I find this time in a set's life is a source of excitement for players based fundamentally card evaluation. A player has read the spoiler before a set, process what they read and deduces the implications; the card power level, it's effect with respect to their commander deck etc. They may get a brief encounter with the card in a game or 2 playing against, or if lucky with, at their Pre-Release. If rated poorly, the card is ignored from there. If it's rated highly, a player will want to build a deck with it and are on the look out for what tournament results might include the new toy. 

I find that the evaluations players apply though is often flawed. Inaccurate ratings emerge, based on misunderstanding of what a card really does or how it fits into the context of a current constructed or limited environment. Assumptions on playability are made with little more than superfluous analysis. I have encountered this again and again, even in seasoned players where they are doing no more than applying a knee-jerk comparison to cards they're already encountered. This approach can devolve into hyperbolic statements which give little or no information as to weather a card is good or not.

"That's awesome, it's a game - changer for sure"

"Wow, how can they print this?"

"This card will make your deck redundant"

and so on. I find this kind of talk both irritating and useless.

A more clinical and considered approach, asking questions about what a card actually does, what is it's return for the cost when you play it and how it fits with a current known environment help reveal a much more accurate picture of what to expect during the cards lifetime in a format. I gave in depth examples in an earlier post when Khans of Tarkir was released.

I'll be applying this type of approach now to evaluate the cards in Dragons. The first part here will consider cards with respect to the current standard format and future posts deal with the set from a limited perspective. My rating system is to attach a numerical value to each card, ranging from 0-10 or from "worst card printed in this format" to "best card printed in this format". For standard now I would apply 0 to something like __ (there are many possible zeros) and 10 to Thoughtseize as the current winner of the "best card" award.

Before considering specific cards, it's worth while noting that Dragons does not add any cycle of non-basic mana producing lands to standard. Our mana is as we have it from Khans so we'll be stuck with the mana-based as they are to allow us to cast out spells from here on it. An older post in this blog did go in depth regarding mana bases and what colour combinations the available lands promote and which combinations they hinder. Here are the pertinent points from that post:

• Mono-colour mana base are possible, as always
• 2-colour mana bases for low-curve aggressive decks were not viable
• "Wedge" colour combinations had the most potential for stable reliable mana bases
• "Shard" mana bases (friendly tri-colour combinations) were possible but not stable, primarily due to Fetch-lands acting only as short-term fixing.

This is a very accurate description of how the format has played out since Khans was released.

With that, thar' be Dragons!

The set is heavy on dragons, so it's not a bad thing to begin the discussion with a the new Elder Dragon. Without examining any of the card apart from it's set symbol and art, I expect this to be a high-impact board dominating card. I would expect this from any of the main character Elder Dragons from this set and Dromoka certainly demonstrates such characteristics. 

A total return of 12 power and toughness for 4GW - or 2 total per mana spent - is a very acceptable rate, he kind we get from known powerhouse standard cards like Siege Rhino or Goblin Rabbleaster. The text-box is also a considerable return in addition to the power and toughness. 

Often "tapout for big dude" strategies naturally suffer vs' countermagic and fail in the tempo-test with 5 or 6 mana being traded for your opponents 2 or 3, which this ignores. As an evasive lifegainer, it also helps weight races heavily in your favour. An opponent has to be attacking you for 10 just to keep up! 

The final line of text also has significant meaning. Not only can Dromoka not be countered but none of your other spells can either (should you cast them on your turn). You need not consider any combat trick from them, or any kind of removal on your turn. The implications of such an effect on a creature are not easily predictable. It is possible the opponent will be satisfied with casting their instants during their turn with the timing not greatly effecting their game-plan. It is also possible that the free-reign you have with Dromoka coupled with it's size allows you to close a game out in short order after untapping with it. 

This "untapping with it" aspect is an aspect of Dragons of Tarkir that will define how our standard format evolves with the set's addition. Dromoka is just one of many high-cost, high-impact in Dragons as well as current standard-legal sets. To some extent, a large cost threat is almost interchangeable. Many, many of them offer large upside, considerable board presence and allow you to close a game quickly if unanswered. Cards like Tassigur the Golden Fang, Whisperwood elemental, Hornet Queen, Ugin the Spirit Dragon... 

They are cards in the vein of "if you untap with this in play, you're likely winning". Dromoka is no different. The classic Dies to Doomblade argument is often bandied about to dismiss such ,creatures that require a (near) tapout to cast. This fear of vulnerability has helped highlight the power of cards that leave incidental advantage furthering your board state when cast - Siege Rhino, Wingmate Roc, Sidisi, Brood Tyrant etc. - so that even cheaper removal is still not directly trading 1-for-1. 

This doesn't make cards that don't leave behind advantage bad but does make them a little riskier. For cards like this, like Domoka, the opponent is required to have that "Doom Blade" or whatever the current removal spell is the following turn or else you will have been the benefit of a significant resource-swing with Dromoka. It is a card that can single-handedly close out a game while simultaneously making it more difficult for your opponent to do the same. Even if they do have the removal spell, the going rate is 3 mana which will tie up a lot of their resources for their own development the turn they cast it, as they'll be unable to do so on your turn. That is the card considered in and of itself and it's characteristics and type of impact it might have in a game. Context of the current standard format offers some further insight into how it might fit into the current format. 

The current decks with both G and W mana are the various flavours of Abzan, Naya Aggro and GW Devotion Clearly, an aggressive deck is not usually in search of a 6 cost monster. This rules out Naya and Abzan Aggro. I can see this card finding a home in either of the slower Abzan decks or in GW devotion as a potential way to break a mirror but the issue is Hornet Queen offers more power to your board and is a trump for Dromoka long term. This really just leave Abzan mid-range or Control. The question then would be, would you prefer to cast this, or something like Elsepth? I'm unsure of the answer. Both have their benefits. While flying is a rare commodity in today's standard and I can certainly imagine a world where Domoka is used to be bigger than whatever the opponent is doing.

The ability to use later-game Thoughtseize to clear a path through potential removal from an opponent is also appealing. However, as a 6-cost threat whose main job is to close out a game, Elspeth, Sun's Champion allows you to do it a whole turn faster (assuming ultimate required) as well as being far more robust and flexible. It is possible the Dromoka's existence allows for a new GW mid-range to develop but on the surface that appears as simply being an Abzan deck without black for no particular reason. 

I am a big fan of Dromoka, I like the card and it will see some play. Liking doesn't make a card good though I don't it seeing very much standard constructed play for now though with better options available for the job she is being interviewed for. Given all that, she rates at a 3.5 for me. 

 I have applied the same process to the remaining cards in Dragon of Tarkir and rated those I consider playable from such analysis. Further commentary was added where I think it's warranted for a particular card. I'd love to hear any feedback, questions or comments you may have regarding my card evaluations.

5.0

3.0

4.0

3.5

The set's namesake cards are above with respective ratings. It is to be expected that as the power level of mythics in a typical set are pushed; it's a basic characteristic of "Mythic-ness". The Elder Dragons are certainly powerful when considered in a vacuum. Many of the same principles and thought process applied to Dromoka hold true for the others; superbly powerful casts if you can resolve them, and untap. They are cards with considerable board impact and all offer high rates of damage (even if it comes from what you steal with regard to Silumgar) with which to close out games. Those positive traits appear at odds with the relatively low ratings but once format context from previously known information in considered, the become appear more appropriate.

Ojutai is the best of this cycle. The card has received considerable press over the past weeks, indeed the hype has resulted in the card tripling in value on the secondary market. At least some of this hype is warranted Prior to Dragons of Tarkir, some Blue-black based control decks were putting up high or winning finishes at GPs, SCG opens and so on. Control was certainly a viable strategy but did suffer on some fundamental points, most notably in the mana cost and damage pace of it's win conditions - think Silumgar the Drifting Death and / or Ugin the Spirit Dragon - and available interactive early plays. Ojutai solves this issue with an ability to close out a game in 4 turns while still offering the safety you a tap-out threat that is not vulnerable. I suggest not looking at Ojutai as a white addition to UB control decks but instead a reason to build a new archetype from the ground up, such as by Soorani. Indeed, Ojutai's W requirement also has many incidental benefits. 

The card's primary functionality is in it's ability to allow a player to deploy a 5-power evasive threat without being vulnerable to almost all removal while simultaneously offering a control element against smaller threats from your opponent with it's 5/4 body. What has drawn many to Dragonlord Ojutai beyond these appealing characteristics is how once it connects to trigger it's mini-Impulse ability, the ability itself helps you find ways to protect Ojutai when it's tapped which in turn allows you to connect again to find more cards and so on, especially given the first turn you connect from on-curve play you can expect up 6 total mana. I would not be surprised to see Ojutai being a mainstay in control strategies for it's lifetime in standard.

The other Dragonlords are appealing in some ways with Atarka topping the list. It does so due to the nature of it's come-into-play ability so that you should expect a benefit regardless of weather the opponent immediately removes it or not. It certainly offers a trump strategy to most things your opponents may do, even making Ugin spend all it's loyalty in dealing with it. 7 mana is an enormous amount and even though it had success in Syracuse the "enormous top-end threat for my aggro deck" aspect is often replaceable, sometimes necessarily so depending on how a format adapts; think prevalence of Terror effects or countermagic. It certainly could end up as the go-do high cost card of choice for a particular build of RG deck but as the format evolves, I could also see the card being relegated to sideboards.

Kologhan and Silumgar both can be the kind of cards you want to add to your deck. Do you have a BR core and need a high end 6-mana threat to break though? Some decks will. Rorix Bladewing certainly saw play in it's time and Dragonlord Silumgar will fill a similar role. currently though, exploration is needed to find if decks like that do have a home. Do you need to have a stall-breaking card to take over a long drawn out game? Dragonlord Silumgar is your giant flying lizard but shares a similar vulnerability to Dromoka. 

All of the Dragons will see some play but the only one of the bunch that ticks the right boxes regarding cost, durable board presence, ability which can advance your board and / or protect itself and so on. One major consideration when looking at the Dragonlords is a card whose very existence causes the level of impact these will have to be limited: Hornet Queen. In recent months, it was an all-star in many decks as one of the best late-game trumps to almost any board state an opponent could muster. The card subtly altered how decks were built and what game-plan they could employ to the extent that entire strategies rose in popularity to specifically battle the card. At the very worst, it trades with any of the Dragons and has a colour and cost that both the Queen and a Dragonlord can be expected to be cast on similar turns. It's a major consideration if you plan on leaning on the big fliers from Dragons of Tarkir.

Another cycle of cards which have received a lot of press in recent weeks are the Dragon's command cycle

Another cycle of cards which have received a lot of press in recent weeks are the Dragon's command cycle. How does one go about rating cards with so much functionality? The cost vs' return analysis is complex. In the past, cards such as these have been slightly over-costed to balance the flexibility. There is a lot going on for each card and many players will simply point to the options allowed to justify the playability of a command. Each combination of modes is certainly potentially one you may want but how can you tell if it's "good enough"....if the card fits that hard-to-define criteria to warrant a place in a main deck? I found breaking down each Command into all it's possible mode combinations made this decision far easier and clearer. Here's a rough-and-ready chart displaying these. I've highlighted the modes which would be "good enough" for me given the cost of the card itself and the mana cost along with my own ratings. The modes I have not highlighted I do not consider a good return for the costs involved, although this isn't to say they will never be useful modes.

Atarka's Command RG 4.0	Dromoka's Command WG 4.5	Kologan's Command 1RB 1.5	Ojutai's Command 2UW 4.0	Silumgar's Command 3UB 4.0
3 damage to opp, +1/+1 and reach	+1/+1 counter, Fight a creature	Shatter, Opp discards a card	Counter a creature spell, Gain 4 Life	Counter a non-creature spell, Boomerang
3 damage to opp, Opps can't gain life	Fight a creature Prevent instant or sorcery damage	Opp discards a card, 2 Damage	Return CMC 2, Gain 4 Life	Counter a non-creature spell, -3/-3 to a creature
3 damage to opp, You can play a land card	Fight a creature, Player sacs and enchantment	Opp discards a card, Return creature from grave to hand	Return CMC 2, Draw a card	Counter a non-creature spell, Destroy a planeswalker
+1/+1 and reach, Opps can't gain life	+1/+1 counter, Prevent instant or sorcery damage	Shatter, Return creature from grave to hand	Return a CMC 2, Counter a creature spell	Boomerang, -3/-3 to a creature
+1/+1 and reach, You can play a land card	+1/+1 counter, Player sacs and enchantment	Shatter, 2 Damage	Draw a card, Gain 4 life	Boomerang, Destroy a planeswalker
Opps can't gain life, You can play a land card	Player sacs and enchantment, Prevent instant or sorcery damage	2 Damage, Return creature from grave to hand	Draw a card, Counter a creature spell	Destroy a planeswalker, -3/-3 to a creature

I'd be very interested top hear in the comments about what which of the above you agree with and which you disagree with. Do you think 2UW and a card is typically worth "Gain 4, cantrip"? Or do you think "kill your walker, bounce a guy" is overpriced at 3UB and a card?

Please feel free to give your opinion. I want to go to the next cycle of cards and keep discussing but I think this post is long enough for now.

More later, it's time to enjoy some of this Irish springtime sun.

- AJ