Hello everyone.
Dragons of Tarkir pre releases are coming this weekend. There are set-reviews and card rating lists popping up all over websites, on podcasts and through social media outlets. Card rating lists can be useful as they can quickly illustrate the expected power level of a set together with which colours appear deepest. Instead of repeating what many will say about the cards in the set I've taken a different approach. I'll be examining the set more homogeneously and letting it and the individual cards show us what kind of decks to expect and how limited games might play out. We can start this examination without reading a single spell!
We've had around 5-6 months of Khans of Tarkir sealed and draft play. The set was widely popular with people enjoying everything from mono to 5 colour decks made possible by the abundance of non-basic mana fixing. We got used to drafting a Khans for a particular seat or examining which colour combinations were possible from out multilands in our sealed pool. The format offered a wide range of deck types, even amongst a Khan with Abzan ranging from aggressive with a Black-White (warrior) base to a bigger, slower Green-black based outlast-driven deck. With Dragons of Tarkir, every single one of the decks you knew and loved are thrown right out the widow!
We've not just got a new set of cards but an entirely new way of drafting. I would call it a near "classical" limited format. Decks will be predominantly 2-colour with 3,4 or 5 colour strategies being the exception and only available to the base-green mages. I know this because are only friendly-pair multicolour cards available and only 1 non-basic land for mana fixing in Dragons with a handful of Rampant Growth style effects. There are some non-basic lands in Fate Reforged but there will be exactly 8 per draft table. You'll get 3 in a sealed pool but this results in something like a 3% chance of having these 3 lands fit into the same friendly-wedge "Shard". For this set in limited, single colours will be far more important. Mana will be smoother but the format should not be too fast as (mega)morph is still present, suggesting the set is designed to allow players to achieve the 6 or 7 lands to turn a card face up which means games that are not over by turn 5!.
So now that we've got a rough impression of how the format might look, I want to take each colour as it stands and examine the cards that will make up the vast majority of your decks. The commons and uncommon creatures. The types of decks possible may have changed but the tacit concept of limited Magic that the games revolve around creature interaction has not. By examining the colour mechanic, creatures and their abilites, the mana curve and where the more powerful cards lie on it, an idea of the kinds of decks that each colour encourages can be revealed. The non-creatures spells, which make up only around 20% of a typical limited deck, are examined after we have a good impression from the creatures. The rares and mythic cards will all be looked at with a round-up of what all of this analysis reveals about the way we expect the format to play out.
First off, black!
First off, black!
The mechanic we have in black this tie is exploit. Immediately when we examine the 1 lone 1 cost creature we see that the mechanic is likely pushed with the Festering Goblin reprint giving a benefit when it dies. This makes me want to keep an eye out for the exploit cards or cards that are similarly beneficial to sacrifice. I would also expect black wishes to pursue a later game because of it's mechanic. In general, cheaper creatures are more aggressive but also less significant on the battlefield over a longer game. Exploit by it's very nature wants to make use of such less-significant cards in the mid-late game rather than exploiting something more expensive. It is also noting what X/1 creatures are floating around the various colours because of the Goblin's trigger when he dies. The 2 cost creatures in black:
It's immediately seen that black is not going to be an aggressive colour, for the most part. 2-mana creatures are the meat and spuds of an aggressive strategy and only 1 of these really fits that n Blood-Chin Rager and it's uncommon. A 1/3 with a low-impact exploit ability is not aggressive, neither is a cheap death-touch creature. I'm not suggesting you can't get some damage through with a 2/1 deathtouch for 2 but that kind of card is not designed for attacking. Almost every opponent will happily throw their worst creature at the Hand of Silumgar to get it off the battlefield to make way for their larger monsters. The return for a card and 2 mana for the above is just about acceptable and I can see all of them filling a role as a 2-drop but overall, black 1 and 2 drops appear somewhat defensive. Does this carry through to the 3-cost creatures?
You'll notice I have lumped the megamorphs into the 3 cost slots also. We learnt from Khans that morph creatures had their larger effect when cast on turn 3 and later morphed to fill use of mana / increase board presence. There is no evidence so far that Dragons will be any different. The more defensive aspect rings through again in both the Drudge skeleton upgrade of Marang River Skeleton and Dutiful Attendant, the latter a card that says "Let me chump block or exploit me!" meaning you'll be the defensive player.
Minister of Pain is the first interesting exploit card we see but like Shambling Goblin it relies on opposing X/1's for greatest effect. Black has 3 so far so it's not yet looking as if these effects are what you might want. There are another smattering of dash creatures but they are at odds with the other black creatures so far. It will be worth looking toward the Red of Blue creatures and see if they can compliment aggressive strategies in those colours. The megamorph creatures also push you to want to get to a later game - 4/4 fliers or 5/7 ground pounders are pretty significant damage sources - and the other black creatures so far promote this.
Minister of Pain is the first interesting exploit card we see but like Shambling Goblin it relies on opposing X/1's for greatest effect. Black has 3 so far so it's not yet looking as if these effects are what you might want. There are another smattering of dash creatures but they are at odds with the other black creatures so far. It will be worth looking toward the Red of Blue creatures and see if they can compliment aggressive strategies in those colours. The megamorph creatures also push you to want to get to a later game - 4/4 fliers or 5/7 ground pounders are pretty significant damage sources - and the other black creatures so far promote this.
The remaining common and uncommon creatures follow the trend of slower more controlling creatures which shine as the game draws out. I've coupled the 4 and 5 cost cards together.
You will get your reward in black for making it to the later game. All 3 of the exploit creatures here offer a significant advantage turning a cheaper perhaps redundant creature on your side into a -3/-3 spell, 2 creatures of 4 power and 4 toughness!! Those are very significant numbers for 4 or 5 mana. Even the more vanilla Ukud Cobra is a significant return for it's cost of 3B and a card from your hand. We've no yet examined the removal in the set but a 2/5 body is rarely fragile in a limited format, meaning it can hold off an opposing army itself by making beneficial attacks very unlikely for your opponent.
None of these black black creatures strike me as utterly unplayable but some are certainly not cards I would be happy taking a space in my 40 card deck. These cards, such as Kologhan Skirmisher or Qarsi Sadist can certainly do a job in an early game as a curve filler in a defensive black deck, block or trading for a (mega)morph respectively but also acting as great exploit fodder for the 4 and 5 mana dudes. Remember though, you still did pay 1B and a card for them if you exploit, the cost is not "free".
Black's creatures here overall advocate that your deck should be aiming for a slower more controlling role in a game. Your cheaper creatures are not best at attacking and your most board-impacting monsters are a higher resource cost in both mana and board resources (remember, exploiting isn't free!!). It is likely that the "Dimir" of Dragonlord Silumgar is the basic friendly-colour pair deck that black has it's best home in but the other creatures and non-creature spells need examination before any preferable colour combinations become clear.
I'll take blue's dude's next, breaking them down in a similar fashion.
If you thought blacks low-cost creatures were defensive, check out the 3 power amongst 5 creatures at 1 and 2 mana for blue! That isn't the whole story though. 2.5 of these cards are deceptively aggressive. I say 2.5 as some of the defensive attributes of the 3 cards need a little work. Gudul Lurker has been likened to Mystic of the Hidden Way, a card that caused some problems against low-removal decks of Khans of Tarkir. The salamander is a megamorph and a 2/2 unblockable is a far better clock than a 1/1. I placed him with this group however as I can certainly see scenarios in particularly aggressive deck that might want to simply sneak him out with that one loose mana on a developmental turn of 3,4 or even 5. He's not going to do nearly as much as if you megamorphed him. But casting your primary card for that turn and this guy will often add up to more damage in the short than just making him for 3U. It's not what I necessarily want to do and will aim to megamorph this guy, especially given the -1 to toughness effects already seen from black creatures but I think it is a point that will be overlooked. We also have an aggressive 1/3 for 1U...well, not exactly aggressive but he doe the job asked of him well. Hold off early megamorphs and 2/1s, and then sneak in for some additional damage in the later game. In scenarios where you use a removal spell to make an opening for a good attack, the Spellfist essentially adds an extra two damage incidentally. The last of the 3 is Palace Familiar. This is printed with the idea to exploit it and get a "free" card in return together with the exploit effect. If you can also get a couple of points of early flying damage from it too, that's all the better. Even if you don't have any exploit cards, having this bird soak up 4-6 damage from a blocking a larger creature which also replacing itself with a random card later in the game is also very beneficial.
The remaining creatures not not what I'm actively looking to use. A 0/4 OR a sorcery-speed unsummon for U and a card is not a good return for cost. Neither is 1U for a 0/4. Don't be fooled the it's ability! It's a trap. If you disagree, I'd be very interested in hearing an example of a game sequence over some turns where you would want to cast to use its mana ability while getting an acceptable return.
How do these fits into the blue 3 cost creatures?
For starters, we only have 3 true 3-cost blue creatures. Every other one will be a vanilla 2/2. This again implies the colour is trying to get to the late game to enable it pay for megamorphing. The two non-megamorphs are also in the controlling vein. Although a Silumgar Sorcerer is certainly a card that can start the beatdown early and it a very classic return for cost on a blue card, you would much prefer to sandbag this to ensure exploitation. In the mid- to-late game, you can use this card to trade on of your worse creatures (even itself!) for a much high-cost threatening creature from your opponent. Again, exploit means you will want to have had the opportunity to resolve a worse (read cheaper) creature, and get to the stage in the game where not only do you have 3 mana open on your opponent's turn that you were not otherwise developing with but a stage where they are tapping a large amount of mana for a significant board presence.
Updraft elemental is something that will very much help you get to that later stage in the game. It will happily block any face down creature, without a worry of a -1 toughness effect taking it down as well as successfully blocking every non-dragon flier we've seen so far. It makes Reckless Imp look positively garbage. Much like some of the 1 and 2 mana blue cards, it also will be able to sneak incidental points of damage in that you did not otherwise expect. Zephyr Scribe is a special kind of card though. We've not had such a "looter" for some time. A single blue mana is so close to zero, especially as often a 4-drop will be a megamorph and a loose mana. His body can trade with those 2/2's but his main function wants to push you into a later game, seeing more cards. Every extra land you draw with him turns into a fresh random card and often it can snowball with one use of his ability finding a non-creature spells to allow you to use it again! A game is not going to be out of your control if you do draw 1-2 more cards than your opponent every turn and effectively never have to draw any unwanted land again! I will be keeping an eye out but so far I have not seen a single meramorph that I would rather cast than this 2/1.
On the subject of megamorphs, blue does have some big bodies here. Belltoll Dragon and Dirgur nemesis illustrate the kind of vanilla, slightly overpriced to unmorph card (compared to Khans) in this set.They do hit hard though (well, the Nemesis only once!) are are very difficult bodies to get rid of but that is what I would expect for paying a total of ten mana! The others in Monastary Loremaster, Silumgar Spell-Eater and Ojutai Interceptor are much more interesting and appealing. After the initial 3 mana investment for a 2/2 which is now considered an acceptable baseline, the loremaster gives you a decent sized 4/3 body after it's turned face up as well as a free card. I say this with certainty as I suggest you not turning him face up without a card to return or anything else to do with your 6 mana or you absolutely need a 4/3 over a 2/2. I apply this logic to Silumgar Speel-Eater also. If you've gone to the trouble of putting these cards into your 40 and then cast them as a 2/2, you want to extract as much bonus as much additional effect from turning them face up as possible and both of these effects are equivalent to an entire extra card.
The Interceptor is a little more difficult to understand and requires some consideration by itself. A high-power evasive creature is something preferable early. The extra power is also appealing for an aggressive creature however to get this I must forgo casting a different 3-mana attacker. Her megamorph counter does make up for that other source of damage in two turns. The question as to weather you want to megamorph or not then comes down to the damage clock it represents for your opponent. Four damage with a counter over turns 4-8 would be a lethal 20. I expect there to be games where attacking for 3 from turns 5-8 (a total of 12) plus the damage from the other megamorph you cast on turn 3 would amount to more (it would come to 22 on the same turn if the megamorph always connects). Normally I would adhere to the idea of spreading out my threat base, meaning casting it as a 3/1 but if the extra mana does not hinder my board development, I will always aim for the 4/2 version.
The final uncommon and common blue creatures follow the trend of black showing that there are not so many at higher cost. I would not expect the more mana intensive creatures to be outright cast almost exclusively because of the megamorph mechanic. There must be an exceptional reason as to why you would forgo the additional counters. There is a lot of mana space in between turns 3 and 6 or 7 though, and we do need to consider creatures that occupy that position in your game development. Both of the above do different jobs at these kind of mana costs but both jobs are very different.
Youthful scholar fits so well into the blue (and previously black) regimen of seeking the late game. On its own it prevents any attack of consequence from your opponent's facedown or otherwise X/2 creatures. We previously listed Vulturous Aven as one of the top end black creatures and the Scholar outshines it on many levels. You need not sacrifice another creature, it ends up in combat (trading or chump blocking) a lot more often to allow those additional cards to pressurise a resource-depleted opponent and it does not cost life! This is a spectacular card with a cost vs return greater than any creature we have examined so far. The blue 5-drop Squid is a different story. Not nearly as spectacular but a very well-cost ground-clogger. His functionality certainly depends on how many 3 and 4 power attackers there are in this format.
Originally I neglected the blue-mono-group due to searching for only creatures. This is effectively a creature. Air elemental stats for cost has almost always been a go-to for any limited blue deck. There are some pros and some cons in comparison to our friend from Alpha. It is certainly not a defensive card; adding only 2 power and 2 toughness to your board state for 5 mana is far, far below the expected board development, The monk will only be able to battle with much cheaper cards from your opponent putting you at a net loss for that turn. One might be inclined to suggest that it's only half a card lost if you trade it for their 2 or 3 drop which is true to an extent, but how much is the other half really going to do for you when the spell rebounds? It's an even later stage in the game offering an even low net change in your board state that the first monk. These points really emphasise to me that you do not want to use this card defensively
Using it aggressively though, it's often BETTER than Air Elemental. It never does quite the same amount of damage (as the 2nd monk will be sick) but it does distribute the power threat making blocking that little more difficult for your opponent. If we look at the flier in this set also, there is very little that really trumps it at common/or uncommon with one Djinn trading for / bouncing off of the fliers I see in this set. We do have the perennial green reach-monster but we've always had similar as flier opposition. The cycle of uncommon dragons does beat both monk over time but they are overcosted at best and blue is very much a colour in this set to promote the "get that one dude of of the way" strategy is has with for instance bounce or ice-effects. A last note is not highlight the rebound aspect of this card. It interacts fantastically with Zephyr Scribe allowing you to see 3 cards from your deck at a minimum the turn you rebound. The presence of the Scribe at common would give me all the incentive I need to rate the non-creature creatures such as the Summons over an equivalent or perhaps even marginally superior monster.
Blue continues the theme we had from black in being a defensive colour, pushing you into the alter stages of the game. Unlike black, the benefit does not come specifically from higher costed creatures but from the abundance of additional card advantage offer by the blue creatures. A scholar trading, Scribe looting or one of Silumgar's wizards unmorphing all offer 2-for-1's at worst. You want to reach the later game to get these rewards.
The next post continues with the green and red common and uncommon creatures.
Best!
- AJ
Black's creatures here overall advocate that your deck should be aiming for a slower more controlling role in a game. Your cheaper creatures are not best at attacking and your most board-impacting monsters are a higher resource cost in both mana and board resources (remember, exploiting isn't free!!). It is likely that the "Dimir" of Dragonlord Silumgar is the basic friendly-colour pair deck that black has it's best home in but the other creatures and non-creature spells need examination before any preferable colour combinations become clear.
I'll take blue's dude's next, breaking them down in a similar fashion.
The remaining creatures not not what I'm actively looking to use. A 0/4 OR a sorcery-speed unsummon for U and a card is not a good return for cost. Neither is 1U for a 0/4. Don't be fooled the it's ability! It's a trap. If you disagree, I'd be very interested in hearing an example of a game sequence over some turns where you would want to cast to use its mana ability while getting an acceptable return.
How do these fits into the blue 3 cost creatures?
For starters, we only have 3 true 3-cost blue creatures. Every other one will be a vanilla 2/2. This again implies the colour is trying to get to the late game to enable it pay for megamorphing. The two non-megamorphs are also in the controlling vein. Although a Silumgar Sorcerer is certainly a card that can start the beatdown early and it a very classic return for cost on a blue card, you would much prefer to sandbag this to ensure exploitation. In the mid- to-late game, you can use this card to trade on of your worse creatures (even itself!) for a much high-cost threatening creature from your opponent. Again, exploit means you will want to have had the opportunity to resolve a worse (read cheaper) creature, and get to the stage in the game where not only do you have 3 mana open on your opponent's turn that you were not otherwise developing with but a stage where they are tapping a large amount of mana for a significant board presence.
Updraft elemental is something that will very much help you get to that later stage in the game. It will happily block any face down creature, without a worry of a -1 toughness effect taking it down as well as successfully blocking every non-dragon flier we've seen so far. It makes Reckless Imp look positively garbage. Much like some of the 1 and 2 mana blue cards, it also will be able to sneak incidental points of damage in that you did not otherwise expect. Zephyr Scribe is a special kind of card though. We've not had such a "looter" for some time. A single blue mana is so close to zero, especially as often a 4-drop will be a megamorph and a loose mana. His body can trade with those 2/2's but his main function wants to push you into a later game, seeing more cards. Every extra land you draw with him turns into a fresh random card and often it can snowball with one use of his ability finding a non-creature spells to allow you to use it again! A game is not going to be out of your control if you do draw 1-2 more cards than your opponent every turn and effectively never have to draw any unwanted land again! I will be keeping an eye out but so far I have not seen a single meramorph that I would rather cast than this 2/1.
On the subject of megamorphs, blue does have some big bodies here. Belltoll Dragon and Dirgur nemesis illustrate the kind of vanilla, slightly overpriced to unmorph card (compared to Khans) in this set.They do hit hard though (well, the Nemesis only once!) are are very difficult bodies to get rid of but that is what I would expect for paying a total of ten mana! The others in Monastary Loremaster, Silumgar Spell-Eater and Ojutai Interceptor are much more interesting and appealing. After the initial 3 mana investment for a 2/2 which is now considered an acceptable baseline, the loremaster gives you a decent sized 4/3 body after it's turned face up as well as a free card. I say this with certainty as I suggest you not turning him face up without a card to return or anything else to do with your 6 mana or you absolutely need a 4/3 over a 2/2. I apply this logic to Silumgar Speel-Eater also. If you've gone to the trouble of putting these cards into your 40 and then cast them as a 2/2, you want to extract as much bonus as much additional effect from turning them face up as possible and both of these effects are equivalent to an entire extra card.
The Interceptor is a little more difficult to understand and requires some consideration by itself. A high-power evasive creature is something preferable early. The extra power is also appealing for an aggressive creature however to get this I must forgo casting a different 3-mana attacker. Her megamorph counter does make up for that other source of damage in two turns. The question as to weather you want to megamorph or not then comes down to the damage clock it represents for your opponent. Four damage with a counter over turns 4-8 would be a lethal 20. I expect there to be games where attacking for 3 from turns 5-8 (a total of 12) plus the damage from the other megamorph you cast on turn 3 would amount to more (it would come to 22 on the same turn if the megamorph always connects). Normally I would adhere to the idea of spreading out my threat base, meaning casting it as a 3/1 but if the extra mana does not hinder my board development, I will always aim for the 4/2 version.
The final uncommon and common blue creatures follow the trend of black showing that there are not so many at higher cost. I would not expect the more mana intensive creatures to be outright cast almost exclusively because of the megamorph mechanic. There must be an exceptional reason as to why you would forgo the additional counters. There is a lot of mana space in between turns 3 and 6 or 7 though, and we do need to consider creatures that occupy that position in your game development. Both of the above do different jobs at these kind of mana costs but both jobs are very different.
Youthful scholar fits so well into the blue (and previously black) regimen of seeking the late game. On its own it prevents any attack of consequence from your opponent's facedown or otherwise X/2 creatures. We previously listed Vulturous Aven as one of the top end black creatures and the Scholar outshines it on many levels. You need not sacrifice another creature, it ends up in combat (trading or chump blocking) a lot more often to allow those additional cards to pressurise a resource-depleted opponent and it does not cost life! This is a spectacular card with a cost vs return greater than any creature we have examined so far. The blue 5-drop Squid is a different story. Not nearly as spectacular but a very well-cost ground-clogger. His functionality certainly depends on how many 3 and 4 power attackers there are in this format.
Originally I neglected the blue-mono-group due to searching for only creatures. This is effectively a creature. Air elemental stats for cost has almost always been a go-to for any limited blue deck. There are some pros and some cons in comparison to our friend from Alpha. It is certainly not a defensive card; adding only 2 power and 2 toughness to your board state for 5 mana is far, far below the expected board development, The monk will only be able to battle with much cheaper cards from your opponent putting you at a net loss for that turn. One might be inclined to suggest that it's only half a card lost if you trade it for their 2 or 3 drop which is true to an extent, but how much is the other half really going to do for you when the spell rebounds? It's an even later stage in the game offering an even low net change in your board state that the first monk. These points really emphasise to me that you do not want to use this card defensively
Using it aggressively though, it's often BETTER than Air Elemental. It never does quite the same amount of damage (as the 2nd monk will be sick) but it does distribute the power threat making blocking that little more difficult for your opponent. If we look at the flier in this set also, there is very little that really trumps it at common/or uncommon with one Djinn trading for / bouncing off of the fliers I see in this set. We do have the perennial green reach-monster but we've always had similar as flier opposition. The cycle of uncommon dragons does beat both monk over time but they are overcosted at best and blue is very much a colour in this set to promote the "get that one dude of of the way" strategy is has with for instance bounce or ice-effects. A last note is not highlight the rebound aspect of this card. It interacts fantastically with Zephyr Scribe allowing you to see 3 cards from your deck at a minimum the turn you rebound. The presence of the Scribe at common would give me all the incentive I need to rate the non-creature creatures such as the Summons over an equivalent or perhaps even marginally superior monster.
Blue continues the theme we had from black in being a defensive colour, pushing you into the alter stages of the game. Unlike black, the benefit does not come specifically from higher costed creatures but from the abundance of additional card advantage offer by the blue creatures. A scholar trading, Scribe looting or one of Silumgar's wizards unmorphing all offer 2-for-1's at worst. You want to reach the later game to get these rewards.
The next post continues with the green and red common and uncommon creatures.
Best!
- AJ
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